13wk x BTFP
Leading Indicator on normal/volatility/defaulting for 13wk T~Bill x FRED H41RESPPALDKNWW growth/decline (unofficial banking/commercial real-estate bailout). LFG = Lets Fucking Go! EOS = Edge of Seat! SHTF = Shit Hitting The Fan! R/L = Risk Lowering R/O = Risk-Off R++ = Riskier Vol = Volatility Norm = Normal Mac = Macro Ana = Analysis https://ai.catenacap.xyz/?p=15989 ~ Explainer
| Date | Ana | Risk | Mac | BTC | 
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01-03 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | 0.88049 | 
| 2022-01-10 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | -5.01155 | 
| 2022-01-17 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | -11.7188 | 
| 2022-01-24 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | 0.301574 | 
| 2022-01-31 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | 20.0136 | 
| 2022-02-07 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | -0.870261 | 
| 2022-02-14 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | -15.1137 | 
| 2022-02-21 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | 17.8267 | 
| 2022-02-28 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | -4.42177 | 
| 2022-03-07 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | -1.97775 | 
| 2022-03-14 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | 4.25882 | 
| 2022-03-21 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | 9.73732 | 
| 2022-03-28 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | -8.19217 | 
| 2022-04-04 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | -4.72318 | 
| 2022-04-11 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | 0.520309 | 
| 2022-04-18 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | -5.14942 | 
| 2022-04-25 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | 1.16444 | 
| 2022-05-02 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | -27.1046 | 
| 2022-05-09 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | -0.748056 | 
| 2022-05-16 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | 2.93173 | 
| 2022-05-23 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | 0.792506 | 
| 2022-05-30 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | 1.40784 | 
| 2022-06-06 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | -25.2933 | 
| 2022-06-13 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | -11.469 | 
| 2022-06-20 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | 0.587473 | 
| 2022-06-27 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | 2.18782 | 
| 2022-07-04 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | -1.63395 | 
| 2022-07-11 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | 14.9433 | 
| 2022-07-18 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | -1.30267 | 
| 2022-07-25 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | -0.379934 | 
| 2022-08-01 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | 4.81188 | 
| 2022-08-08 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | -2.55695 | 
| 2022-08-15 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | -8.33733 | 
| 2022-08-22 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | -6.28963 | 
| 2022-08-29 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | -3.7913 | 
| 2022-09-05 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | 4.9308 | 
| 2022-09-12 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | -8.37301 | 
| 2022-09-19 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | 4.81299 | 
| 2022-09-26 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | 3.77263 | 
| 2022-10-03 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | -4.97789 | 
| 2022-10-10 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | -0.0909937 | 
| 2022-10-17 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | 8.52936 | 
| 2022-10-24 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | -2.95241 | 
| 2022-10-31 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | -21.2368 | 
| 2022-11-07 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | 4.95041 | 
| 2022-11-14 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | -0.358232 | 
| 2022-11-21 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | 3.35265 | 
| 2022-11-28 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | -1.8632 | 
| 2022-12-05 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | 5.7475 | 
| 2022-12-12 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | -5.59183 | 
| 2022-12-19 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | -1.58046 | 
| 2022-12-26 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | 1.87838 | 
| 2023-01-02 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | 6.35352 | 
| 2023-01-09 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | 14.1917 | 
| 2023-01-16 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | 11.752 | 
| 2023-01-23 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | 2.6605 | 
| 2023-01-30 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | -3.29426 | 
| 2023-02-06 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | 5.93237 | 
| 2023-02-13 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | -0.487531 | 
| 2023-02-20 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | -2.24949 | 
| 2023-02-27 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | -8.15722 | 
| 2023-03-06 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | 12.2278 | 
| 2023-03-13 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | 12.0376 | 
| 2023-03-20 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | 3.833 | 
| 2023-03-27 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | -0.60725 | 
| 2023-04-03 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | 6.97005 | 
| 2023-04-10 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | -3.57967 | 
| 2023-04-17 | SHTF | EOS | LFG | -1.39116 | 
| 2023-04-24 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | 2.03262 | 
| 2023-05-01 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | -4.85527 | 
| 2023-05-08 | SHTF | EOS | LFG | -0.804759 | 
| 2023-05-15 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | -3.89331 | 
| 2023-05-22 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | 3.38099 | 
| 2023-05-29 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | -3.20524 | 
| 2023-06-05 | SHTF | EOS | LFG | -4.6417 | 
| 2023-06-12 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | 19.5275 | 
| 2023-06-19 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | 0.301076 | 
| 2023-06-26 | SHTF | EOS | LFG | 1.42251 | 
| 2023-07-03 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | -0.378613 | 
| 2023-07-10 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | -1.55842 | 
| 2023-07-17 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | -1.87288 | 
| 2023-07-24 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | -0.687611 | 
| 2023-07-31 | SHTF | EOS | LFG | 1.37057 | 
| 2023-08-07 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | -2.91636 | 
| 2023-08-14 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | -7.90306 | 
| 2023-08-21 | SHTF | EOS | LFG | 3.27543 | 
| 2023-08-28 | SHTF | EOS | LFG | -5.67247 | 
| 2023-09-04 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | 1.86425 | 
| 2023-09-11 | SHTF | EOS | LFG | 3.44563 | 
| 2023-09-18 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | -2.86446 | 
| 2023-09-25 | SHTF | EOS | LFG | 5.47728 | 
| 2023-10-02 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | -3.32867 | 
| 2023-10-09 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | 5.41448 | 
| 2023-10-16 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | 21.7786 | 
| 2023-10-23 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | 2.70391 | 
| 2023-10-30 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | 0.602962 | 
| 2023-11-06 | SHTF | EOS | LFG | 6.3057 | 
| 2023-11-13 | SHTF | EOS | LFG | -1.18173 | 
| 2023-11-20 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | 1.17064 | 
| 2023-11-27 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | 15.5445 | 
| 2023-12-04 | SHTF | EOS | LFG | -2.00687 | 
| 2023-12-11 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | -1.43114 | 
| 2023-12-18 | SHTF | EOS | LFG | -0.429239 | 
| 2023-12-25 | SHTF | EOS | LFG | 1.00948 | 
| 2024-01-01 | SHTF | EOS | LFG | -0.12369 | 
| 2024-01-08 | SHTF | EOS | LFG | -0.581293 | 
| 2024-01-15 | SHTF | EOS | LFG | -0.0381237 | 
| 2024-01-22 | SHTF | EOS | LFG | -0.0135382 | 
| 2024-01-29 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | 0.0999209 | 
| 2024-02-05 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | -0.109716 | 
| 2024-02-12 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | -0.225399 | 
| 2024-02-19 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | 0.0299984 | 
| 2024-02-26 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | -0.342379 | 
| 2024-03-04 | SHTF | EOS | LFG | 0.970211 | 
| 2024-03-11 | SHTF | EOS | LFG | 1.27624 | 
| 2024-03-18 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | 0.473827 | 
| 2024-03-25 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | 0.859201 | 
| 2024-04-01 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | 0.234446 | 
| 2024-04-08 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | -0.441353 | 
| 2024-04-15 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | -0.120121 | 
| 2024-04-22 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | 0.291983 | 
| 2024-04-29 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | -0.564821 | 
| 2024-05-06 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | 0.385782 | 
| 2024-05-13 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | -0.00552106 | 
| 2024-05-20 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | -0.516443 | 
| 2024-05-27 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | 0.0789983 | 
| 2024-06-03 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | -0.0698415 | 
| 2024-06-10 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | -0.0688956 | 
| 2024-06-17 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | 0.192361 | 
| 2024-06-24 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | -0.379369 | 
| 2024-07-01 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | -0.991623 | 
| 2024-07-08 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | 1.25955 | 
| 2024-07-15 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | -0.213834 | 
| 2024-07-22 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | -0.984723 | 
| 2024-07-29 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | -0.144897 | 
| 2024-08-05 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | 0.0507772 | 
| 2024-08-12 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | 0.250097 | 
| 2024-08-19 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | 0.0539387 | 
| 2024-08-26 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | -1.10504 | 
| 2024-09-02 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | 0.629606 | 
| 2024-09-09 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | N/A | 
| 2024-09-16 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | N/A | 
| 2024-09-23 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | N/A | 
| 2024-09-30 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | N/A | 
| 2024-10-07 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | N/A | 
| 2024-10-14 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | N/A | 
| 2024-10-21 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | N/A | 
| 2024-10-28 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | N/A | 
| 2024-11-04 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | N/A | 
| 2024-11-11 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | N/A | 
| 2024-11-18 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | N/A | 
| 2024-11-25 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | N/A | 
| 2024-12-02 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | N/A | 
| 2024-12-09 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | N/A | 
| 2024-12-16 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | N/A | 
| 2024-12-23 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | N/A | 
| 2024-12-30 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | N/A | 
| 2025-01-06 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | N/A | 
| 2025-01-13 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | N/A | 
| 2025-01-20 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | N/A | 
| 2025-01-27 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | N/A | 
| 2025-02-03 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | N/A | 
| 2025-02-10 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | N/A | 
| 2025-02-17 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | N/A | 
| 2025-02-24 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | N/A | 
| 2025-03-03 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | N/A | 
| 2025-03-10 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | N/A | 
| 2025-03-17 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | N/A | 
| 2025-03-24 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | N/A | 
| 2025-03-31 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | N/A | 
| 2025-04-07 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | N/A | 
| 2025-04-14 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | N/A | 
| 2025-04-21 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | N/A | 
| 2025-04-28 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | N/A | 
| 2025-05-05 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | N/A | 
| 2025-05-12 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | N/A | 
| 2025-05-19 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | N/A | 
| 2025-05-26 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | N/A | 
| 2025-06-02 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | N/A | 
| 2025-06-09 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | N/A | 
| 2025-06-16 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | N/A | 
| 2025-06-23 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | N/A | 
| 2025-06-30 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | N/A | 
| 2025-07-07 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | N/A | 
| 2025-07-14 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | N/A | 
| 2025-07-21 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | N/A | 
| 2025-07-28 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | N/A | 
| 2025-08-04 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | N/A | 
| 2025-08-11 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | N/A | 
| 2025-08-18 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | N/A | 
| 2025-08-25 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | N/A | 
| 2025-09-01 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | N/A | 
| 2025-09-08 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | N/A | 
| 2025-09-15 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | N/A | 
| 2025-09-22 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | N/A | 
| 2025-09-29 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | N/A | 
| 2025-10-06 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | N/A | 
| 2025-10-13 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | N/A | 
| 2025-10-20 | Volatile | Risk Off | Risk-On | N/A | 
| 2025-10-27 | Normal | Risk Lower | Riskier | N/A | 
20/12/23
These are the patterns identified for the rows where ‘BTC%’ is non-negative:
- Analysis: The ‘Normal’ state appears 25 times, ‘Volatile’ appears 18 times, and ‘SHTF’ appears 6 times.
- Risk: The ‘Risk Lower’ assessment appears 25 times, ‘Risk Off’ appears 18 times, and ‘EOS’ appears 6 times.
- Macro: The ‘Riskier’ macro condition appears 25 times, ‘Risk-On’ appears 18 times, and ‘LFG’ appears 6 times.
From this, we can infer that the ‘Normal’ state in the ‘Analysis’ column and ‘Risk Lower’ in the ‘Risk’ column are the most common conditions associated with non-negative ‘BTC%’ values. Similarly, ‘Riskier’ is the most common in the ‘Macro’ column for non-negative ‘BTC%’ values. These patterns suggest that there may be a correlation between these states and positive or zero ‘BTC%’ values.